If you sell, lend on or underwrite Manhattan condos, the third-quarter numbers are worth five minutes of your time. Contracts dropped hard, yet the resale market stayed healthy. Something does not add up, and the reporting points to supply.
In this post, I walk through what TRD reported, lay out the key figures in one table, and share what I would watch next. Each figure is tied to the firm that supplied it, because the sources differ. Where I add analysis, I will label it as my view.
The Headline Numbers
Per TRD, New York City’s new development market hit what many hope is its bottom in the third quarter. Here is the Manhattan picture, according to data from Brown Harris Stevens Development Marketing (BHSDM):
- Contracts fell 30 percent to 240 from 331, compared with the same time last year.
- Contract volume fell 13 percent to $961 million from $1.1 billion.
- The average closed price per square foot was roughly flat year over year at $2,070.
By my calculation, that is 91 fewer contracts year over year. Volume fell far less than count, and pricing held. That pattern suggests fewer deals, not cheaper ones. That is my read, not TRD’s.
The downswing could look like a natural extension of headwinds across sectors. But TRD notes the resale market has stayed healthy, with contract signings up over the same period. So this is not a simple “condos are dead” story.
Why It Happened: Low Inventory
The culprit, according to Robin Schneiderman, managing director at BHSDM, is low inventory after several years of a slow new development pipeline. The roughly 3,000 new development units on the market are 30 percent below Manhattan’s 10-year average.
Even that thin supply is uneven. TRD reports that four buildings that launched at least four years ago, including One Wall Street and the Waldorf-Astoria condo conversion, account for roughly 1,000 unsold units.
My view: I would read that as roughly a third of the shelf sitting in a handful of older launches. Buyers shopping the other 2,000 or so units have fewer choices than the headline count suggests. That is my arithmetic from TRD’s rounded figures, so treat it as directional.
Schneiderman was candid about how hard the quarter was to read:
“It’s not the best quarter to come out and say the market is good or the market is bad.” — Robin Schneiderman, BHSDM
What’s Old Is New
With just 360 new units hitting the market last quarter across 10 buildings in Manhattan, many top sellers were boutique launches or older buildings catching a second wind against reduced competition.
Here are the projects TRD profiled. Note that the data source differs by row:
| Project | Reported activity | Details | Data source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95 Madison (the Emmet Building), NoMad | 28 contracts; $2,036 average asking price per SF | Launched sales this past summer; 65 condos across 16 stories; about $1M for a one-bedroom to over $25M for a six-bedroom penthouse | Corcoran Sunshine Marketing Group |
| 250 West 96th Street | 13 contracts in the quarter | Launched sales four years ago; 130 units, two-thirds sold; $1.3M one-bedroom to just under $12M four-bedroom penthouse | Per TRD (no data firm named) |
| 155 West 68th Street | 15 contracts last quarter | Former rental; converted to include 324 condos in 2024; average asking price just $1,402 | Corcoran Sunshine |
| Front & York, Dumbo (Brooklyn) | 11 contracts, tops in the borough | 400 units; launched sales in 2021; over 80 percent sold | Marketproof |
A quick note on 155 West 68th Street. TRD corrected the article to specify that the building includes 324 condos, not 324 units overall. I use the corrected framing here.
The Players Behind the Projects
TRD names the teams and owners, and they matter if you track who is winning listings:
- 95 Madison: Yangfang Chen’s Sunlight Development and investment firm NuVerse converted the historic NoMad office building. Global Real Estate Ventures’ Vickie Saali is leading sales.
- 250 West 96th: JVP Management’s project. A Corcoran team led by Kristen Suh and Team Arceon is overseeing sales.
- 155 West 68th: Owned by Ogden CAP Properties, a real estate investment firm owned by a branch of the Milstein family. A BHSDM team led by Andrew Phillips and Amelia Gewirtz has the listings.
- Front & York: CIM Group and LIVWRK’s two-tower Dumbo development.
TRD describes the Emmet Building as a hulking stone structure with Gothic revival ornamentation. For a conversion of a historic office building, 28 contracts after a summer launch is a notable result in a quarter this slow.
Entry-Level Pricing Won
Schneiderman said projects with more entry-level pricing fared particularly well, because “that segment of the market is starving for inventory.”
The 155 West 68th Street contracts came at an average asking price of just $1,402, per Corcoran Sunshine. That is well below the $2,070 closed average BHSDM reported for Manhattan and the $2,036 asking average at 95 Madison.
My caution: those three figures come from different firms and measure different things (asking versus closed, different buildings). I would not subtract one from another. I cite them side by side only to show the range TRD reported.
Brooklyn Tells a Similar Story
Per TRD, Brooklyn’s activity mirrored Manhattan’s. Contracts fell 21 percent to 198, and contract volume fell 20 percent to $350 million.
Front & York led the borough with 11 contracts, according to Marketproof. The 400-unit building launched in 2021 and is now over 80 percent sold. A five-year-old launch still topping a borough’s quarterly chart supports the “older buildings catching a second wind” theme.
What I’d Watch Next
This section is my view, not TRD’s reporting.
- The 1,000-unit overhang. Four older launches hold roughly a third of the roughly 3,000 units on offer. How sponsors price and move those units will shape the market’s read on supply.
- New launches. Only 360 new units came to market across 10 buildings last quarter. If launches stay thin, I would expect the boutique and second-wind projects to keep winning.
- Resale versus new. Resale contracts rose while new development fell. I would track whether buyers keep defaulting to resale when new inventory is scarce.
- The data mix. BHSDM, Corcoran Sunshine and Marketproof each report differently. Before you pitch a lender or an investor, I would pin every number to its source.
The Bottom Line
Manhattan new development contracts fell 30 percent to 240, and volume slid 13 percent to $961 million, while closed pricing stayed flat near $2,070 per square foot. Resale held up. Schneiderman points to inventory that is 30 percent below the 10-year average and concentrated in older buildings.
My takeaway: this looks like a supply story more than a demand collapse, though TRD itself says the quarter is hard to read. Buyers who want a deal at the entry level appear to be rewarded with options when they exist. Sponsors with fresh, well-priced product may find less competition than the headline suggests.
Developers, brokers and lenders, here is my question for you: with only 360 new units hitting the market last quarter, is the Q3 dip a true bottom, or is the thin pipeline the real story for 2027?
Source: TRD, ““Head-scratcher”: Understanding NYC’s new development market swoon” by Jake Indursky.
Source: The Real Deal.
